diff --git a/docs/full-network-experiment-2026-07.md b/docs/full-network-experiment-2026-07.md
index cd36e57..a50573a 100644
--- a/docs/full-network-experiment-2026-07.md
+++ b/docs/full-network-experiment-2026-07.md
@@ -645,9 +645,25 @@ one pulled from the wrong relay and never reconciled.
 **Corrected position at hour 59.5:** 3,675,382 complete is **16–19%**, not the
 63.6% reported all day. Remaining is 15.7–19.2M repos, which at the observed
 48 repos/s is **91–111 hours more** — against a 120-hour envelope with 60 hours
-left. Bootstrap does not finish in this envelope. Even assuming the rate doubles
-to 100/s as repositories shrink, it lands at 103–113 h for bootstrap alone,
-before merge and cutover.
+left. Bootstrap does not finish in this envelope.
+
+**The rate has plateaued — do not assume it keeps climbing.** It rose 6.6 → 47
+repos/s over the first two days as the crawl left the large-repository head, and
+then stopped. Measured from batch intervals (each batch is exactly 100,000
+repos, so the interval is a clean rate measurement):
+
+```
+12:26->13:11  45 min = 41/s     15:16->15:56  40 min = 47/s
+13:11->13:54  43 min = 44/s     15:56->16:43  47 min = 40/s
+13:54->14:35  42 min = 45/s     16:43->17:22  39 min = 48/s
+14:35->15:16  41 min = 46/s
+```
+
+Five hours, median 47/s, no trend. An earlier version of this section offered
+"103–113 h if the rate doubles to 100/s" as an optimistic case; that case is
+**not supported by the data** and was speculation. At the measured rate the
+finish is **152–173 h elapsed**, overrunning the 120-hour envelope by 32–53
+hours, before merge and cutover.
 
 **The method failure worth keeping:** the right denominator was one command away
 (`docker inspect` the running container for `--relay-url`) for the entire run.