diff --git a/deploy/site/index.html b/deploy/site/index.html
index 05713b5..86a1eed 100644
--- a/deploy/site/index.html
+++ b/deploy/site/index.html
@@ -37,7 +37,7 @@ footer a:hover{color:var(--hot);border-bottom-color:var(--water)}
 .seq{display:flex;flex-direction:column;align-items:center;gap:.25rem}
 #seq{font-size:2rem;font-weight:300;color:var(--hot);letter-spacing:.06em;font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}
 .seqlbl{font-size:.72rem;color:var(--dim);letter-spacing:.3em;text-transform:uppercase}
-.rate{color:var(--water);letter-spacing:normal;text-transform:none;margin-left:1ch;border-bottom:1px dotted var(--faint)}
+.rate{color:var(--water);letter-spacing:normal;text-transform:none;margin-left:1ch}
 .rate:hover{color:var(--hot)}
 .tag{color:var(--dim);font-size:.84rem;text-align:center;max-width:52ch}
 .eps{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:.8rem;width:100%;max-width:66ch}
diff --git a/deploy/site/stats.html b/deploy/site/stats.html
index 5df37d6..ff01fe2 100644
--- a/deploy/site/stats.html
+++ b/deploy/site/stats.html
@@ -62,15 +62,9 @@ footer a:hover{color:var(--hot);border-bottom-color:var(--water)}
     <div class="stat"><span class="v" id="served">—</span><span class="l">blocks served</span><span class="s" id="served-sub"></span></div>
     <div class="stat"><span class="v" id="ingest">—</span><span class="l">ingest rate</span><span class="s" id="ingest-sub">upstream seq advance</span></div>
   </div>
-  <div class="sect" id="expected">what to expect at this hour</div>
-  <canvas id="profile" width="1100" height="360" style="width:100%;max-width:66ch;height:auto"></canvas>
-  <p class="s" style="color:var(--dim);font-size:.78rem;max-width:58ch;text-align:center;line-height:1.7">the firehose has a daily heartbeat: a 2&times; swing from the 08:00utc trough
-  to the 16:00utc plateau, stable month over month. the line is the median
-  events/s per utc hour over the trailing 90 days of
-  <a href="https://relay-eval.waow.tech" style="color:var(--water)">relay-eval</a>
-  windows (recomputed continuously); bands are p25&ndash;p75 and p10&ndash;p90. the dashed
-  line is now; the dot is this instance's live ingest rate &mdash; above the band
-  means catching up, on it means current.</p>
+  <div class="sect" id="expected">the firehose has a heartbeat</div>
+  <canvas id="profile" width="1100" height="380" style="width:100%;max-width:66ch;height:auto"></canvas>
+  <p class="s" style="color:var(--dim);font-size:.74rem;text-align:center">median events/s per utc hour &middot; p25&ndash;75 and p10&ndash;90 bands &middot; trailing 90 days via <a href="https://relay-eval.waow.tech" style="color:var(--water)">relay-eval</a></p>
   <div class="sect">the machine</div>
   <div class="grid">
     <div class="stat"><span class="v" id="rss">—</span><span class="l">memory</span><span class="s">resident set</span></div>
@@ -112,9 +106,10 @@ function noteRate(upN){
     $("ingest").textContent = _rateEma === null || upN === 0n ? "—" :
       Math.round(_rateEma).toLocaleString() + "/s";
     if (_rateEma !== null && upN !== 0n) {
-      const exp = expectedNow(), x = _rateEma / exp;
-      $("ingest-sub").innerHTML = "<a href=\"#expected\" style=\"color:inherit;border-bottom:1px dotted var(--faint)\">expected ~" + exp + "/s this hour</a>" +
-        (x > 1.5 ? " · catching up at " + x.toFixed(1) + "×" : "");
+      const x = _rateEma / expectedNow();
+      $("ingest-sub").textContent = x > 1.5
+        ? "catching up at " + x.toFixed(1) + "× the hour's typical rate"
+        : "upstream seq advance";
     }
   }
 }
@@ -242,6 +237,16 @@ function drawProfile(){
   ctx.beginPath(); ctx.moveTo(X(hf),Y(0)); ctx.lineTo(X(hf),Y(ymax)); ctx.stroke(); ctx.setLineDash([]);
   if (_rateEma !== null){ ctx.beginPath(); ctx.arc(X(hf), Y(Math.min(_rateEma,ymax)), 5, 0, 7);
     ctx.fillStyle = css("--hot"); ctx.fill(); }
+  // the sentence lives on the chart, where the answer is
+  const exp = EXPECTED[now.getUTCHours()];
+  ctx.font = "22px ui-monospace,Menlo,monospace"; ctx.textAlign = "left";
+  ctx.fillStyle = css("--hot");
+  ctx.fillText("expected ~" + exp + "/s at this hour", L + 14, T + 26);
+  if (_rateEma !== null){
+    ctx.fillStyle = css("--water");
+    ctx.fillText("live " + Math.round(_rateEma) + "/s " + (_rateEma > EXPECTED[now.getUTCHours()]*1.5 ? "· catching up" : "· current"), L + 14, T + 52);
+  }
+  ctx.textAlign = "start";
 }
 setInterval(drawProfile, 5000); setTimeout(drawProfile, 1200);
 sumArchive();