diff --git a/src/lib/microcosm/thread.ts b/src/lib/microcosm/thread.ts
index ff3de96..7ebbb23 100644
--- a/src/lib/microcosm/thread.ts
+++ b/src/lib/microcosm/thread.ts
@@ -181,7 +181,7 @@ async function expandBelow(
   signal?: AbortSignal,
 ): Promise<void> {
   if (parentDepth >= below) return
-  const {replies, total} = await fetchReplies(
+  const {replies} = await fetchReplies(
     parentUri,
     branchingFactor,
     sort,
@@ -191,24 +191,47 @@ async function expandBelow(
   if (replies.length === 0) return
 
   const depth = parentDepth + 1
+  const willExpandChildren = depth < below
   for (const reply of replies) {
     const opThread = !!rootAuthorDid && reply.author.did === rootAuthorDid
-    // moreReplies is best-effort: how many direct replies we didn't render.
-    const moreReplies = Math.max(0, total - replies.length)
-    out.push(
-      makeThreadItem(reply.uri, depth, reply, {opThread, moreReplies}),
-    )
-    await expandBelow(
-      reply.uri,
-      depth,
-      below,
-      branchingFactor,
-      sort,
-      rootAuthorDid,
-      viewerDid,
-      out,
-      signal,
-    )
+
+    // `moreReplies` is about THIS reply's own unshown children, not its
+    // siblings. If we won't recurse into it (depth limit), it's the reply's full
+    // reply count; otherwise we recurse and the count is filled by that call, so
+    // 0 here. (replyCount comes from the full hydration of the reply.)
+    const ownReplyCount = reply.replyCount ?? 0
+    const moreReplies = willExpandChildren ? 0 : ownReplyCount
+
+    const before = out.length
+    out.push(makeThreadItem(reply.uri, depth, reply, {opThread, moreReplies}))
+
+    if (willExpandChildren) {
+      await expandBelow(
+        reply.uri,
+        depth,
+        below,
+        branchingFactor,
+        sort,
+        rootAuthorDid,
+        viewerDid,
+        out,
+        signal,
+      )
+      // If recursion rendered fewer children than this reply actually has
+      // (capped by branchingFactor, or some failed to hydrate), report the
+      // remainder so the UI can offer to load them.
+      const rendered = out.length - before - 1
+      if (rendered < ownReplyCount) {
+        const item = out[before]
+        if (
+          item.value.$type === 'app.bsky.unspecced.defs#threadItemPost'
+        ) {
+          ;(
+            item.value as AppBskyUnspeccedDefs.ThreadItemPost
+          ).moreReplies = ownReplyCount - rendered
+        }
+      }
+    }
   }
 }