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bayes for days
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123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 734 101" width="734" height="101" role="img" aria-label="arc_spread: 4 subjects, each labelled with the feature's value"><style> :root { --paper: #fbfaf8; --ink: #1b1d21; --faint: #6b7078; --ground: #e6e5e2; --measured: #dde6ef; --edge: #cfcbc3; --accent: #2f6fb0; --ours: #2f6fb0; --theirs: #b23a35; --wood: #4a7a4a; --wood-heavy: #1f4d24; --water: #4a7a9e; --water-heavy: #1f4a70; --walk: #2f6fb0; --run: #b8912a; --ring: #8a5a8a; --hot: #c2562f; --aim: #8a5a8a; --trace: #1f6f5c; } @media (prefers-color-scheme: dark) { :root:not([data-theme="light"]) { --paper: #14161a; --ink: #e6e4e0; --faint: #8b9098; --ground: #23262b; --measured: #2b333d; --edge: #3a3f47; --accent: #6fa8dc; --ours: #6fa8dc; --theirs: #e08e88; --wood: #7bb07b; --wood-heavy: #cfe8cf; --water: #7ba8c8; --water-heavy: #cfe4f5; --walk: #6fa8dc; --run: #e2c162; --ring: #c69cc6; --hot: #e8845c; --aim: #c69cc6; --trace: #64bfa6; } } /* A page that offers a switch needs the choice to beat the preference, in both directions. See `page.rs`. */ :root[data-theme="dark"] { --paper: #14161a; --ink: #e6e4e0; --faint: #8b9098; --ground: #23262b; --measured: #2b333d; --edge: #3a3f47; --accent: #6fa8dc; --ours: #6fa8dc; --theirs: #e08e88; --wood: #7bb07b; --wood-heavy: #cfe8cf; --water: #7ba8c8; --water-heavy: #cfe4f5; --walk: #6fa8dc; --run: #e2c162; --ring: #c69cc6; --hot: #e8845c; --aim: #c69cc6; --trace: #64bfa6; } .paper { fill: var(--paper); } .ground { fill: var(--ground); stroke: var(--edge); stroke-width: 0.7; } /* A hex that was measured and read zero is not the same thing as a hex nobody measured, and on a hull figure the difference is the whole point: one is a candidate worth nothing, the other is not a candidate. So a measured hex gets its own ground under the ramp. */ .measured { fill: var(--measured); stroke: var(--edge); stroke-width: 0.7; } .value { fill: var(--accent); stroke: none; } .num { font: 600 9px ui-monospace, "DejaVu Sans Mono", monospace; fill: var(--ink); text-anchor: middle; dominant-baseline: central; paint-order: stroke fill; stroke: var(--paper); stroke-width: 2.4px; stroke-linejoin: round; } .who { font: 700 9px ui-sans-serif, "DejaVu Sans", sans-serif; text-anchor: middle; dominant-baseline: central; paint-order: stroke fill; stroke: var(--paper); stroke-width: 2.4px; } .who.us { fill: var(--ours); } .who.them { fill: var(--theirs); } .unit.us { fill: var(--ours); } .unit.them { fill: var(--theirs); } .nose { stroke: var(--paper); stroke-width: 1.6; fill: none; } .aim circle { fill: none; stroke: var(--aim); stroke-width: 1.4; } .aim path { stroke: var(--aim); stroke-width: 1.4; fill: none; } .label { font: 400 10px ui-sans-serif, "DejaVu Sans", sans-serif; fill: var(--faint); } .label.strong { font-weight: 600; fill: var(--ink); } .bar { fill: var(--ground); stroke: var(--edge); stroke-width: 0.7; } .fill { fill: var(--accent); } /* After `.num` and `.who` on purpose: a `text-anchor` presentation attribute loses to any rule in this stylesheet, so an anchor has to be a class or it is silently ignored. */ .hull { fill: none; stroke-width: 2.2; stroke-linejoin: round; } .hull.run { stroke: var(--run); stroke-dasharray: 5 3; } .hull.walk { stroke: var(--walk); } .band { fill: var(--ring); stroke: none; } .bandline { stroke: var(--ring); stroke-width: 1; stroke-dasharray: 3 2; stroke-linejoin: round; opacity: 0.55; } .bandlabel { font: 700 15px ui-monospace, "DejaVu Sans Mono", monospace; fill: var(--ring); dominant-baseline: central; paint-order: stroke fill; stroke: var(--paper); stroke-width: 3px; } .ringlabel { font: 500 8px ui-monospace, "DejaVu Sans Mono", monospace; fill: var(--ring); dominant-baseline: central; paint-order: stroke fill; stroke: var(--paper); stroke-width: 2.4px; } .step { fill: var(--ground); stroke: var(--edge); stroke-width: 0.8; } .step.ours { stroke: var(--hot); stroke-width: 1.4; } .step.filled { fill: var(--hot); } .steplabel { font: 500 7px ui-monospace, "DejaVu Sans Mono", monospace; fill: var(--faint); dominant-baseline: central; } .steplabel.filled { fill: var(--paper); font-weight: 700; } .brklabel { font: 500 8px ui-monospace, "DejaVu Sans Mono", monospace; fill: var(--faint); dominant-baseline: central; } .brklabel.ours { fill: var(--hot); font-weight: 700; } .mid { text-anchor: middle; } .los { stroke: var(--trace); stroke-width: 1.8; stroke-linecap: round; } .los.gone { stroke-dasharray: 4 3; } .lospill { fill: var(--paper); stroke: var(--trace); stroke-width: 0.8; } .losnote { font: 600 8px ui-monospace, "DejaVu Sans Mono", monospace; fill: var(--trace); dominant-baseline: central; } .arrow { stroke: var(--trace); stroke-width: 1.4; stroke-dasharray: 3 2; } .arrowhead { fill: var(--trace); } .anchor { fill: none; stroke: var(--trace); stroke-width: 2; } .anchorlabel { font: 700 8px ui-monospace, "DejaVu Sans Mono", monospace; fill: var(--trace); dominant-baseline: central; paint-order: stroke fill; stroke: var(--paper); stroke-width: 2.4px; } .start { text-anchor: start; } .end { text-anchor: end; } .glyph { stroke-width: 1.4; fill: none; } .glyph.wood { stroke: var(--wood); } .glyph.wood.heavy { stroke: var(--wood-heavy); fill: var(--wood-heavy); } .glyph.water { stroke: var(--water); } .glyph.water.heavy { stroke: var(--water-heavy); stroke-width: 1.9; } text.ground { font: 600 6px ui-sans-serif, "DejaVu Sans", sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.02em; fill: var(--wood); dominant-baseline: central; paint-order: stroke fill; stroke: var(--paper); stroke-width: 2.2px; } text.ground.heavy { fill: var(--wood-heavy); }</style><rect class="paper" x="0" y="0" width="734" height="101"/><rect class="bar" x="8.0" y="8.0" width="172.0" height="67.0" rx="3"/><text class="who us start" x="16.0" y="20.0">2-2, one side each</text><text class="num end" x="172.0" y="20.0">0.75</text><rect class="bar" x="16.0" y="30.0" width="156.0" height="7" rx="2"/><rect class="fill" x="16.0" y="30.0" width="117.0" height="7" rx="2"/><text class="label" x="16.0" y="52.0">U1→E1 U2→E1 U3→E2 U4→E2</text><rect class="bar" x="190.0" y="8.0" width="172.0" height="67.0" rx="3"/><text class="who us start" x="198.0" y="20.0">2-2, crossed</text><text class="num end" x="354.0" y="20.0">1.00</text><rect class="bar" x="198.0" y="30.0" width="156.0" height="7" rx="2"/><rect class="fill" x="198.0" y="30.0" width="156.0" height="7" rx="2"/><text class="label" x="198.0" y="52.0">U1→E1 U3→E1 U2→E2 U4→E2</text><rect class="bar" x="372.0" y="8.0" width="172.0" height="67.0" rx="3"/><text class="who us start" x="380.0" y="20.0">3 on E1</text><text class="num end" x="536.0" y="20.0">0.83</text><rect class="bar" x="380.0" y="30.0" width="156.0" height="7" rx="2"/><rect class="fill" x="380.0" y="30.0" width="130.0" height="7" rx="2"/><text class="label" x="380.0" y="52.0">U1→E1 U2→E1 U3→E1 U4→E2</text><rect class="bar" x="554.0" y="8.0" width="172.0" height="67.0" rx="3"/><text class="who us start" x="562.0" y="20.0">all four on E1</text><text class="num end" x="718.0" y="20.0">0.75</text><rect class="bar" x="562.0" y="30.0" width="156.0" height="7" rx="2"/><rect class="fill" x="562.0" y="30.0" width="117.0" height="7" rx="2"/><text class="label" x="562.0" y="52.0">U1→E1 U2→E1 U3→E1 U4→E1</text><text class="label strong" x="8.0" y="89.0">arc_spread</text></svg>