diff --git a/knowledge/published/electricity-grid-as-bottleneck.md b/knowledge/published/electricity-grid-as-bottleneck.md
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+---
+title: The Electricity Grid as a Bottleneck
+slug: electricity-grid-as-bottleneck
+summary: >-
+  Why generation growth does not become usable electricity until planning,
+  wires, equipment, and interconnection catch up.
+kind: concept
+status: evolving
+claimMode: mixed
+perspectiveOwner: Co
+confidence: medium
+topics:
+  - electricity
+  - infrastructure
+  - energy transition
+  - world systems
+related:
+  - fertilizer-nitrogen-and-food-security
+sources:
+  - title: 'Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions: executive summary'
+    url: >-
+      https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-grids-and-secure-energy-transitions/executive-summary
+  - title: >-
+      Queued Up: Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission
+      Interconnection
+    url: 'https://emp.lbl.gov/queues'
+aiAssisted: true
+generatedBy: Co
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+---
+Large generation announcements can make electricity supply look like a simple construction problem: propose enough power plants, then build them. A project can carry a gigawatt figure while it is still asking for permission to connect. Between a proposal and commercial operation sits an interconnection process that can require studies, new equipment, network upgrades, cost allocation, permitting, and years of work.
+
+Electricity supply is limited by the rate at which projects can connect to a planned, permitted, equipped, and operated grid.
+
+Here, the grid means the networks and equipment used to deliver electricity, together with the system operators that decide how proposed plants may connect. Interconnection is the process through which a proposed project obtains an electrically workable path into that system.
+
+## From proposal to connection
+
+[Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s *Queued Up*](https://emp.lbl.gov/queues) describes the formal entry point in the United States. Transmission operators require proposed power plants seeking a grid connection to undergo impact studies before the plants can be built. Those studies establish which transmission equipment or upgrades may be required and assign their costs. The lists of projects undergoing this process are called interconnection queues.
+
+A useful schematic sequence is: request, impact studies, identification and costing of required network work, connection, and commercial operation. Operators need not use identical stages or timelines.
+
+The distinction between stages is essential because a proposal’s requested capacity becomes visible before its power becomes available. Requested capacity is evidence of demand for grid access; later milestones provide stronger evidence that the capacity may reach operation.
+
+## What queue volume measures
+
+At the end of 2025, about 8,200 projects were actively seeking grid interconnection in the United States, representing 1,312 GW of generation and approximately 749 GW of storage. The scale is large, but Berkeley Lab reports that most projects applying for interconnection are eventually withdrawn. Projects that are built have also been taking longer on average to complete their required studies and begin operating.
+
+The historical outcomes give the queue a useful denominator. Of the capacity that submitted interconnection requests from 2000 through 2020, 13% had reached commercial operation by the end of 2025, while 75% had been withdrawn and 10% remained active. Berkeley Lab describes queue data as a general indicator of future capacity additions. The withdrawal record shows why the full queue cannot be carried directly into a forecast of operating supply.
+
+Queue totals also combine technologies at different stages. The 2025 active queue included generation and storage, so a headline total covering both categories does not describe generation capacity alone.
+
+## The gap after an agreement
+
+Progress within the queue provides more information than entry alone, but it still leaves a gap to operation. Berkeley Lab reports that 549 GW already had a draft or executed interconnection agreement at the end of 2025 without having reached commercial operation. That total included 256 GW of solar, 161 GW of storage, 76 GW of wind, and 45 GW of natural gas.
+
+An interconnection agreement and commercial operation are separate milestones. An agreement can mark substantial progress while construction, upgrades, or other remaining work still stand between the project and available supply. Berkeley Lab does not divide the 549 GW by the specific reason each project had yet to begin operating.
+
+For projects built in 2025 in regions with available data, the median duration from interconnection request to commercial operation exceeded five years. That measure covers the full interval rather than attributing the delay to one step.
+
+## Network buildout runs on a longer clock
+
+The same timing problem appeared globally in the [International Energy Agency's 2023 grid report](https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-grids-and-secure-energy-transitions/executive-summary). The IEA reported that at least 3,000 GW of renewable power projects were waiting in grid connection queues, including 1,500 GW in advanced stages. The full amount was equivalent to five times the solar and wind capacity added during 2022.
+
+That estimate is incomplete by construction. Queue data were accessible for countries accounting for half of global wind and solar capacity, and the agency says the worldwide total is therefore likely higher.
+
+The physical network develops more slowly than many projects seeking to use it. According to the agency, new grid infrastructure often requires five to 15 years to plan, permit, and complete. New renewable projects typically require one to five years, while new electric-vehicle charging infrastructure can require less than two years. The timing mismatch allows connection requests and electricity demand to accumulate faster than the supporting network can be expanded.
+
+The required buildout is also large relative to the existing system. The 2023 report estimated that meeting national goals would require adding or refurbishing more than 80 million kilometres of grids by 2040, an amount equivalent to the entire existing global grid. It reported that global grid investment had remained around USD 300 billion per year while renewable investment increased rapidly, and estimated that grid investment would need to nearly double to more than USD 600 billion per year by 2030 to meet national climate targets.
+
+## Four parts of the constraint
+
+The two reports describe four parts of the bottleneck:
+
+1. **Planning and permission.** Grid infrastructure must be planned and permitted, a process included in the agency’s five-to-15-year development range.
+2. **Physical equipment.** Interconnection studies identify the transmission equipment and upgrades required before a project can connect.
+3. **Cost assignment and investment.** Operators assign upgrade costs through the interconnection process, while the broader grid requires substantially greater investment.
+4. **System operation.** Connecting capacity does not remove the need to operate the system through changing patterns of output. In a scenario consistent with national climate goals, the agency estimates that required system flexibility doubles between 2022 and 2030 as variable renewable generation expands.
+
+The four-part decomposition organizes the reported mechanisms; neither source measures it as one composite variable. It helps locate the relevant constraint when a large capacity announcement appears.
+
+## Reading a capacity proposal
+
+A proposed-capacity figure becomes more informative when paired with its position in the connection process. Useful questions include:
+
+- Is the capacity represented by an initial request, completed studies, an interconnection agreement, or commercial operation?
+- Which transmission equipment or upgrades have the impact studies identified?
+- Have the costs of that work been assigned?
+- Does the total combine generation with storage?
+- How much capacity from comparable requests has historically reached operation?
+- Does the surrounding grid have the planning, permitting, investment, equipment, and operating flexibility required to accept the project?
+
+Grid constraints can then propagate into product systems. [Fertilizer, Nitrogen, and Food Security](/knowledge/fertilizer-nitrogen-and-food-security) follows one chain from energy inputs through industrial production, trade, farm use, and crop risk.
diff --git a/knowledge/published/fertilizer-nitrogen-and-food-security.md b/knowledge/published/fertilizer-nitrogen-and-food-security.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..faca166
--- /dev/null
+++ b/knowledge/published/fertilizer-nitrogen-and-food-security.md
@@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
+---
+title: 'Fertilizer, Nitrogen, and Food Security'
+slug: fertilizer-nitrogen-and-food-security
+summary: >-
+  How natural gas, ammonia production, concentrated trade, and farm economics
+  connect energy shocks to food supply.
+kind: concept
+status: evolving
+claimMode: mixed
+perspectiveOwner: Co
+confidence: medium
+topics:
+  - fertilizer
+  - food security
+  - energy
+  - world systems
+related:
+  - electricity-grid-as-bottleneck
+  - maritime-chokepoints
+sources:
+  - title: 'Ammonia Technology Roadmap: executive summary'
+    url: 'https://www.iea.org/reports/ammonia-technology-roadmap/executive-summary'
+  - title: >-
+      Impacts and Repercussions of Price Increases on the Global Fertilizer
+      Market
+    url: >-
+      https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/impacts-and-repercussions-price-increases-global-fertilizer-market
+  - title: FAO fertilizer market update
+    url: >-
+      https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/0c79f9df-b2eb-43cb-9b84-977efea5b197/content
+aiAssisted: true
+generatedBy: Co
+sourceDigest: 'sha256:096616dc1c63c3bcecfbc2a6b227c017daba629eab1493410900c43484b52800'
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+implementationReviewedAt: '2026-09-03T11:23:44.293Z'
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+  kind: technical-publication-authorization
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+---
+An energy shock can reach a farm through a sequence of chemical, industrial, trade, and purchasing decisions. Reports from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/ammonia-technology-roadmap/executive-summary), [USDA](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/impacts-and-repercussions-price-increases-global-fertilizer-market), and [FAO](https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/0c79f9df-b2eb-43cb-9b84-977efea5b197/content) describe the links in that sequence. Industrial ammonia ties nitrogen fertilizer to fossil energy, while fertilizer production and exports are concentrated. The exposure is consequential without being mechanical: an energy-price change must alter production costs or output, then fertilizer availability or affordability, then farm use before it can create crop-output risk.
+
+## From air and energy to fertilizer
+
+Plants need nutrients to grow and develop. Nitrogen helps plants reach their yield potential, phosphorus supports root development and drought resistance, and potassium aids photosynthesis. Some soils naturally contain enough nutrients to support crop growth; others may require fertilizer application to optimize plant health and yield.
+
+Ammonia is the industrial bridge between atmospheric nitrogen and mineral nitrogen fertilizer. Ammonia is the starting point for all mineral nitrogen fertilizers, and about 70 percent of ammonia is used for fertilizers. Common nitrogen products in this chain include urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulphate, and other compounds.
+
+Conventional ammonia production usually obtains hydrogen through natural-gas steam reforming or coal gasification. The Haber-Bosch process then combines that hydrogen with atmospheric nitrogen under high pressure and temperature to make ammonia. In its 2021 roadmap, the IEA reported that just over 70 percent of global ammonia production used natural gas-based steam reforming, while most of the remainder used coal gasification.
+
+The same 2021 roadmap estimated that ammonia production consumed around 2 percent of global final energy, or 8.6 exajoules. Around 40 percent of this energy input was consumed as feedstock, while the remainder supplied process energy, mainly heat. The industry used 170 billion cubic metres of natural gas, equal to 20 percent of industrial natural gas demand, along with 75 million tonnes of coal equivalent.
+
+## Where an energy shock enters
+
+The reports document episodes in which higher energy costs reduced fertilizer production or increased nitrogen prices. In mid-2021, a surge in European natural gas prices resulted in reduced ammonia production. Higher coal prices in China also led to electricity rationing and lower output at some fertilizer plants.
+
+European natural gas prices were less volatile in early 2025 than during the spikes of late 2021 and 2022, but the benchmark price still averaged EUR 43 per megawatt hour from January through May 2025. That was 54 percent above the same period in 2024. FAO linked a concurrent rally in urea and nitrate prices to higher fertilizer production costs. Across nitrogenous fertilizers, prices averaged USD 339 per tonne during those five months, 15 percent above the corresponding 2024 average.
+
+High natural gas costs from February through April 2025 triggered urea production curtailments in Egypt and Iran, the fourth- and sixth-largest producers, which together supply 15 percent of global urea. FAO separately reported that production later returned to standard levels.
+
+Energy exposure differs across fertilizer categories. Natural gas is a key building block for all nitrogen fertilizers and for two widely used phosphate fertilizers: monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP). Potassium fertilizers are not directly linked to natural gas prices. In the first five months of 2025, potassium prices were broadly stable from a year earlier even as nitrogen and phosphate prices increased. FAO's product comparison therefore supports identifying the nutrient and product rather than treating every fertilizer-price movement as the same energy shock.
+
+## Production concentration and trade
+
+The IEA reports that the availability of feedstock and process energy helps determine where and how ammonia is produced. USDA's data show that fertilizer production and exports are concentrated. China, Russia, the United States, India, and Canada together produce more than 60 percent of the world's fertilizer nutrients. Ten countries account for 71 percent of nitrogen fertilizer production, while five countries or regions account for more than 60 percent of fertilizer exports.
+
+The degree of trade exposure also changes along the production chain. Ammonia exports equal about 10 percent of total ammonia production, while urea exports equal just under 30 percent of urea production. The IEA's comparison suggests that processed urea provides a larger international transmission channel than raw ammonia.
+
+[Maritime Chokepoints](/knowledge/maritime-chokepoints) follows how disruptions on one part of that trade channel can consume vessel capacity, delay deliveries, and increase transport costs even while cargo continues moving.
+
+The USDA and FAO episodes show government policy changing that channel. In 2021, higher coal prices in China led to electricity rationing and reduced output at some fertilizer plants; China then imposed a fertilizer export quota, particularly on phosphates, through June 2022, citing domestic availability and food security.
+
+In its June 2025 update, FAO reported that limits on Chinese urea and DAP exports were active until June 2025. For the June-to-October outlook period, it expected China to resume urea exports from June through October for a maximum of 2 million tonnes and said a reduction in the customs inspection and export-permit period from 40 to 10 days should facilitate MAP and DAP exports. FAO also reported that uncertainty around changes in trade policy and possible tariffs had resulted in adjustments to buyers' behavior.
+
+Aggregate production totals alone do not describe a buyer's access. Access also depends on product-specific export limits and the prices buyers face. Trade policy sits between factory output and farm affordability.
+
+## The farm affordability decision
+
+Farmers consider fertilizer prices alongside the prices at which they expect to sell crops. FAO's fertilizer-crop price ratio tracks the relative evolution of fertilizer and crop prices, indexed to the 2019 annual average. When the ratio rises, fertilizer becomes less affordable relative to the crop, the incentive to apply it declines, and crop yields may be affected.
+
+The ratio's direction can differ from its level. In May 2025, the ratio of urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) to wheat prices in France declined, indicating improved affordability, but closed 45 percent above its 2019 baseline; the U.S. urea-to-maize ratio closed 43 percent above baseline. A falling ratio can therefore improve the immediate purchasing environment while leaving affordability worse than an earlier reference period.
+
+The size of fertilizer in farm budgets gives this comparison practical weight. In USDA's 2022 assessment, fertilizer accounted for nearly one-fifth of U.S. farm cash costs. Its share of operating costs reached 36 percent for corn and 35 percent for wheat. Those figures describe the cost structure reported at that time rather than a universal share for every farm or year, but they show why fertilizer affordability can affect production decisions.
+
+## From lower use to food-security risk
+
+The final link requires evidence about fertilizer use and crop response. Nitrogen supports plant growth and yield potential, but soils begin with different nutrient conditions. Lower yields are a possible result of reduced fertilizer application rather than an automatic outcome of every price increase.
+
+USDA reported that countries in sub-Saharan Africa had already reduced fertilizer use because of short supplies, low stocks, and high prices. Application rates there were already very low. USDA warned that further reductions could negatively affect crop yields and threaten food security for vulnerable populations.
+
+Longer-term production changes could alter the first link in the chain. The IEA's 2021 roadmap identified emerging near-zero-emission ammonia routes based on electrolysis, methane pyrolysis, and fossil-based production with carbon capture and storage. At that time, these routes were typically estimated to cost 10 to 100 percent more per tonne than conventional production, depending on energy prices and regional conditions, and most were not yet commercially available at scale. The roadmap also reported that more efficient nitrogen application could ease the burden on new production-technology deployment.
+
+## How to trace a shock
+
+The chain can be traced in order:
+
+1. Identify the relevant energy input and production region. Natural gas dominates global ammonia production, while coal supplies most of the remainder. For electricity-dependent production routes, [grid connection](/knowledge/electricity-grid-as-bottleneck) can become an upstream constraint of its own.
+2. Look for an observed production response, such as higher production costs, plant curtailments, or a later return to standard output. A fuel-price movement by itself does not establish a fertilizer shortage.
+3. Follow the specific fertilizer product. Nitrogen products carry the strongest direct natural-gas exposure, while potassium follows different market fundamentals.
+4. Map exporter concentration, quotas, tariffs, and other restrictions between production and the importing market.
+5. Compare fertilizer prices with expected crop prices to assess relative affordability.
+6. Look for evidence that purchasing or application changed, then consider the soil, crop, and existing application rate before making a claim about output.
+
+An energy or trade shock creates agricultural-output risk when it changes fertilizer availability or affordability enough to alter farm use. A price spike at the first link alone does not establish a food-security loss at the last.
diff --git a/knowledge/published/maritime-chokepoints.md b/knowledge/published/maritime-chokepoints.md
new file mode 100644
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--- /dev/null
+++ b/knowledge/published/maritime-chokepoints.md
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+---
+title: Maritime Chokepoints
+slug: maritime-chokepoints
+summary: >-
+  How local disruptions at canals and straits propagate through route length,
+  vessel demand, prices, emissions, and trade statistics.
+kind: concept
+status: evolving
+claimMode: mixed
+perspectiveOwner: Co
+confidence: medium
+topics:
+  - shipping
+  - trade
+  - infrastructure
+  - world systems
+related:
+  - fertilizer-nitrogen-and-food-security
+sources:
+  - title: Review of Maritime Transport 2024
+    url: 'https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2024'
+  - title: Suez and Panama Canal disruptions threaten global trade and development
+    url: >-
+      https://unctad.org/news/suez-and-panama-canal-disruptions-threaten-global-trade-and-development
+  - title: Red Sea Attacks Disrupt Global Trade
+    url: >-
+      https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/03/07/red-sea-attacks-disrupt-global-trade
+aiAssisted: true
+generatedBy: Co
+sourceDigest: 'sha256:925f046a5125cad978c3b61843b26aab2c5baefde64ac753e961f655ec33fea3'
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+---
+Maritime chokepoints concentrate shipping flows into narrow routes. The Suez and Panama disruptions show what happens when traffic is diverted: goods can keep moving, while voyages become longer, slower, and more expensive.
+
+A chokepoint shock changes effective shipping capacity by forcing longer routes, even when the number of vessels does not change.
+
+## Where trade becomes concentrated
+
+In this article, a maritime chokepoint means a route whose disruption can redirect a substantial volume of shipping onto longer paths. The exposure is large because, according to UN Trade and Development's [2024 review](https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2024), over 80% of world trade volume is carried by sea.
+
+The Suez and Panama Canals illustrate two forms of concentration. The International Monetary Fund's [March 2024 analysis](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/03/07/red-sea-attacks-disrupt-global-trade) describes the Suez Canal as the shortest maritime route between Asia and Europe and says that about 15% of global maritime trade volume normally passes through it. The Panama Canal usually accounts for about 5%.
+
+Their importance lies in route substitution. When passage declines, diverted ships travel farther, deliveries arrive later, and the shipping system must provide more transport work.
+
+## How distance becomes a capacity constraint
+
+Ton-miles combine cargo weight with distance traveled, so the measure rises when the same cargo takes a longer route. In 2023, seaborne cargo volume grew by 2.4% to 12.3 billion tons, while ton-miles rose by 4.2%. UNCTAD attributed the faster growth in ton-miles to longer shipping distances caused by disruptions on routes including the Suez and Panama Canals.
+
+By mid-2024, longer routes had raised global vessel ton-mile demand by 3% and container-ship demand by 12%.
+
+Read together, UNCTAD's figures support an operational interpretation: a longer voyage uses more vessel-distance for each delivery and keeps the vessel committed for longer. The fleet must therefore provide more transport work to move cargo over the longer route. This is how route length can strain shipping capacity without reducing the number of ships.
+
+## Two disruptions and two detours
+
+Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea area reduced traffic through the Suez Canal, leading several shipping companies to divert ships around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. In the first two months of 2024, Suez Canal trade volume fell 50% from a year earlier, while estimated trade volume around the Cape rose 74%. The IMF reported that the diversion increased delivery times by 10 days or more on average.
+
+The Panama disruption had a different cause. Severe drought forced canal authorities to restrict daily ship crossings. Trade through the canal fell almost 32% year over year in the first two months of 2024, and UNCTAD reported that the disruption increased sailing distances by 31% for affected routes.
+
+Traffic subsequently developed differently at the two canals. [UNCTAD's October 2024 update](https://unctad.org/news/suez-and-panama-canal-disruptions-threaten-global-trade-and-development) reported that Suez averaged 33 transits per day by mid-October, 55% lower than one year earlier and only 4% above its lowest recorded four-week average. Panama's four-week average was 30 transits per day, 4% lower than one year earlier and 40% above its early-2024 low.
+
+The sources use different measures and observation windows for Cape rerouting. The IMF estimated a 74% year-over-year increase in Cape trade volume during the first two months of 2024, while UNCTAD reported an 89% rise in rerouted vessel capacity by mid-2024. These figures describe different quantities and periods, so they should not be treated as interchangeable estimates of one rerouting rate.
+
+## The cost stack created by rerouting
+
+Across its two reports, UNCTAD links longer routes or rerouting with increased fuel consumption, crew wages, insurance premiums, chartering costs, port congestion, piracy risks, delays, and carbon emissions.
+
+One container-freight benchmark moved sharply over the same period. By mid-2024, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index had more than doubled from late 2023. UNCTAD treated the persistence of higher shipping costs as a condition in its consumer-price projection: if sustained, they would increase global consumer prices by 0.6% by 2025.
+
+The projected effect was larger for small island developing States. UNCTAD estimated a 0.9% increase in their consumer prices and a 1.3% increase in processed-food costs. It also reported that their shipping connectivity had fallen 9% over the preceding decade, leaving them ten times less connected than the rest of the world.
+
+UNCTAD's comparison suggests that lower existing connectivity can amplify the consequences of a common shipping-cost shock for some economies. This is a reading of the reported contrast, rather than a separately measured causal effect in the supplied figures.
+
+## Rerouting can complicate economic measurement
+
+The IMF reports that the temporary impact of rerouted ships can affect customs-based import and export statistics, making the underlying momentum of trade and economic activity harder to assess. It does not specify the exact accounting mechanism, so the supported conclusion is limited: during rerouting, customs data may provide a less clear signal of underlying trade momentum.
+
+Read together, the three reports suggest a practical tracing sequence: canal traffic shows the initial interruption; Cape traffic identifies rerouting; delivery-time, ton-mile, and vessel-demand measures show the added transport burden; freight indices show pressure in shipping markets; and customs statistics and conditional consumer-price projections show possible later economic effects. This sequence organizes the reported observations, but it does not establish every causal link or isolate product-level pass-through from other causes of price changes.
+
+The consequences depend on the cargo and the market waiting at the other end. [Fertilizer, Nitrogen, and Food Security](/knowledge/fertilizer-nitrogen-and-food-security) traces one commodity system in which concentrated production and export policy already make transport conditions consequential.
diff --git a/knowledge/published/paper-water-and-wet-water.md b/knowledge/published/paper-water-and-wet-water.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..bb6e9b6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/knowledge/published/paper-water-and-wet-water.md
@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@
+---
+title: Paper Water and Wet Water
+slug: paper-water-and-wet-water
+summary: >-
+  How legal allocations, physical supply, operating rules, and consumptive use
+  diverge in the Colorado River Basin.
+kind: concept
+status: evolving
+claimMode: mixed
+perspectiveOwner: Co
+confidence: medium
+topics:
+  - water
+  - climate
+  - infrastructure
+  - world systems
+related: []
+sources:
+  - title: 'Colorado River Compact, 1922'
+    url: 'https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g1000/pdfiles/crcompct.pdf'
+  - title: Post-2026 Colorado River alternatives narrative
+    url: >-
+      https://www.doi.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2024-11/narrative-updated.pdf
+  - title: >-
+      New water accounting reveals why the Colorado River no longer reaches the
+      sea
+    url: 'https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01291-0'
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+---
+Legal apportionments can coexist with physical shortfall in a river and its reservoirs. A legal instrument can recognize uses and obligations, but it cannot guarantee that the river, reservoirs, and infrastructure contain enough water to make every contemplated delivery.
+
+In this article, “paper water” and “wet water” are analytical shorthand. Paper water names a use or claim recognized by a legal or administrative regime. Wet water names the physical supply present in the river and reservoirs. Deliverable water is the portion that operations and infrastructure can release and route under prevailing conditions. The distinction prevents legal specifications, physical measurements, operational records, decision rules, and consumption budgets from being treated as interchangeable accounts.
+
+## Five questions for one quantity
+
+Water quantities become confusing when the same unit answers different questions:
+
+- **Legal entitlement:** Who holds a recognized use or claim, for what amount or share, under which instrument and conditions?
+- **Hydrologic supply:** How much water does the system produce or hold during the relevant period?
+- **Operational accounting:** Which deliveries, stored quantities, and administrative categories are recognized?
+- **Operating rules:** How do physical conditions and accounted quantities determine releases, shortage triggers, and shortage distribution?
+- **Consumptive use:** How much withdrawn water remains depleted after return flows are subtracted, and which additional system losses are included in the budget?
+
+These questions interact, but each requires its own evidence. A compact can establish an apportionment or obligation. Measurements and modeled water budgets describe physical conditions. Operational accounting records recognized deliveries, storage, and administrative categories, while operating rules use those quantities and physical conditions to determine releases and shortages. Consumptive-use accounting measures depletion within a specified budget boundary.
+
+## What the compact allocates
+
+The [1922 Colorado River Compact](https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g1000/pdfiles/crcompct.pdf) identifies equitable division and apportionment of use among its major purposes and divides the system into Upper and Lower Basins. Article I says the compact makes an apportionment of the use of part of the Colorado River System’s water to each basin and allows further equitable apportionments. Article III(f) refers expressly to water left unapportioned by paragraphs III(a), III(b), and III(c), and Article III(g) describes a process for dividing that unapportioned water.
+
+Within that limited apportionment, Article III(a) gives each basin, in perpetuity, the exclusive beneficial consumptive use of 7,500,000 acre-feet per year. Article III(b) gives the Lower Basin an additional right to increase beneficial consumptive use by 1,000,000 acre-feet per year.
+
+The compact also specifies a flow obligation at a different time scale. Article III(d) says the Upper Division states will not cause flow at Lee Ferry to be depleted below an aggregate of 75,000,000 acre-feet over any ten consecutive years. Article VIII says present perfected rights remain unimpaired and directs that other rights to beneficial use be satisfied solely from water apportioned to the basin in which they are situated.
+
+Measurement appears separately. Article V directs state and federal officials to coordinate facts about flow, appropriation, consumption, and use and to publish the annual flow at Lee Ferry. Taken together, these provisions distinguish legal quantities from evidence about physical performance: the compact specifies recognized uses and obligations, while observed flow measures what the system carries.
+
+## What a consumption budget measures
+
+The [2024 accounting study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01291-0) compiles an average Colorado River water-consumption budget for 2000–2019. It defines consumptive use as total withdrawals minus return flows. Its direct human-use categories are agriculture and municipal, commercial, and industrial use. Its broader budget also includes reservoir evaporation and evapotranspiration from riparian and wetland vegetation.
+
+The authors report that irrigated agriculture accounted for 74 percent of direct human consumption and 52 percent of overall consumption. In the overall budget, riparian and wetland vegetation accounted for 19 percent of consumption, while reservoir evaporation accounted for 11 percent.
+
+Under the study’s definition, a withdrawal figure can exceed consumptive use when some water returns to the system. A delivery or withdrawal record alone therefore does not establish how much water remained depleted. The budget boundary matters as well: including reservoir evaporation and riparian or wetland evapotranspiration changes the denominator and the shares attributed to direct users.
+
+The same study reports that total annual consumption exceeded runoff supplies in 16 of the 21 years from 2000 through 2020. It says withdrawals from Lake Mead and Lake Powell accommodated the deficits and reports an average annual overdraft of 10 percent during that period. Those findings describe the relationship between physical supply, stored water, and consumption. The status of any particular right remains a question for the governing legal instruments.
+
+## How reservoir operations mediate delivery
+
+The [post-2026 operations narrative](https://www.doi.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2024-11/narrative-updated.pdf) presents five alternatives in advance of a draft environmental impact statement. It describes a goal of coordinated management of Lake Powell and Lake Mead across their full operating range under a wide range of potential future system and hydrologic conditions. Because the document presents alternatives for analysis before the draft environmental impact statement, it does not establish that any one alternative became the final rule.
+
+Across all alternatives, the narrative warns that releases from Lake Powell may fall below a specified release when elevation is below 3,490 feet because of Glen Canyon Dam infrastructure limitations. It also says additional Lower Basin shortages, along with potential additional reductions in deliveries to Mexico, may be necessary in scenarios where Lake Mead reaches dead pool.
+
+The alternatives show how physical state can enter a decision rule. Alternative 2 would determine Lake Powell releases using Lake Powell and Lake Mead elevations, ten-year running-average hydrology, and Lower Basin deliveries. It would trigger shortages using combined storage and distribute them pro rata. Alternative 4 would analyze shortage distribution under both priority and pro-rata approaches.
+
+The alternatives also separate accounting mechanisms from release and shortage rules. The No Action alternative and Alternative 1 would deliver existing Intentionally Created Surplus under existing agreements and create no new delivery and storage mechanisms. Alternative 1, Alternative 2, and Alternative 4 call for explicit accounting of unused or undeveloped quantified Tribal water. Alternatives 2 and 4 would also add new delivery and storage mechanisms.
+
+The narrative’s accounting provisions concern recognized ICS deliveries, delivery and storage mechanisms, and explicit accounting of unused or undeveloped quantified Tribal water. Its operating rules use physical conditions and administrative quantities to determine releases, shortage triggers, and shortage distribution. The proposals therefore treat operational accounting and operating rules as connected but distinct parts of reservoir management.
+
+The alternatives support a further operational inference. Because different formulas can act on the same reservoir and hydrologic conditions, operating rules could change actual deliveries without amending the underlying compact.
+
+## Following one claim through the system
+
+Consider a hypothetical holder of a recognized claim. The legal inquiry begins with the instrument creating or preserving that claim. The supply inquiry asks what water is physically present over the relevant period. The operational-accounting inquiry determines which deliveries, stored quantities, and administrative categories are recognized. The operating-rule inquiry applies physical and accounted quantities to release and shortage decisions. The consumption inquiry then subtracts recognized return flows and includes any indirect losses inside the selected budget.
+
+If reservoir conditions trigger a lower release, evidence of reduced delivery answers an operational question. Deciding the claim’s legal status still requires the governing instrument. A full withdrawal can also produce a smaller consumptive-use figure when the accounting method recognizes return flows. These are different observations about the same water system rather than rival measurements of one undifferentiated object.
+
+A useful reading discipline is to attach a noun and time scale to every number:
+
+- Is it an annual apportionment, a ten-year flow obligation, a reservoir release, a delivery, a withdrawal, stored water, or consumptive use?
+- Does it describe a legal specification, a measured or modeled result, an operational-accounting entry, or a proposed operating rule?
+- Which reservoir conditions, infrastructure limits, return flows, evaporation, and ecological consumption are inside the relevant account?
+- How is the quantity recorded, and which rule uses it to determine a release or shortage?
+- Which priority or pro-rata rule distributes a shortage once the physical mismatch appears?
+
+Comparing legal quantities, physical measurements, operational accounts, and consumption budgets can expose a mismatch among recognized uses, supply, deliveries, and depletion. The compact and the proposed operating alternatives show that legal instruments and operating rules govern different parts of how a resulting shortage is assigned.
diff --git a/knowledge/published/wastewater-surveillance-as-public-health-infrastructure.md b/knowledge/published/wastewater-surveillance-as-public-health-infrastructure.md
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index 0000000..9ff526f
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+---
+title: Wastewater Surveillance as Public Health Infrastructure
+slug: wastewater-surveillance-as-public-health-infrastructure
+summary: >-
+  How pooled sewage samples become population-level signals, and where
+  measurement, interpretation, and trust can fail.
+kind: concept
+status: evolving
+claimMode: mixed
+perspectiveOwner: Co
+confidence: medium
+topics:
+  - public health
+  - wastewater
+  - surveillance
+  - world systems
+related: []
+sources:
+  - title: About CDC's Wastewater Monitoring Program
+    url: 'https://www.cdc.gov/wastewater/about/index.html'
+  - title: CDC wastewater surveillance data methodology
+    url: 'https://www.cdc.gov/nwss/data-methods.html'
+  - title: Wastewater surveillance of pathogens can inform public health responses
+    url: 'https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01940-x'
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+---
+A wastewater sample is a collective specimen. Material shed by many people enters a shared sewage system, where a pooled sample can indicate whether the measured amount or activity of a biological target is rising or falling within the sampled catchment. It does not directly measure population prevalence: shedding patterns, sampling, and laboratory methods complicate the mapping from wastewater concentration to infection burden. Wastewater surveillance turns pooled biological traces into a population-level signal, but its value depends on sampling, laboratory consistency, interpretation, and community trust. The [CDC National Wastewater Surveillance System](https://www.cdc.gov/wastewater/about/index.html) provides public-health infrastructure for monitoring infectious diseases through wastewater across the United States. The output is a trend in the pooled wastewater signal for a represented catchment, rather than a diagnosis of any person.
+
+## From sewage to signal
+
+Wastewater monitoring begins by collecting pooled samples from community or institutional sewage systems. A catchment is the area represented by wastewater collected at a sampling point. Its represented population consists of people contributing wastewater within that area. Sampling can occur at community, institutional, or more localized scales. A [2022 *Nature Medicine* comment](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01940-x) also describes localized sampling in communities without centralized sewage collection and treatment, although its authors identify rural and unsewered surveillance capacity as an area needing further development.
+
+Laboratory testing looks for pathogens or biological markers in the pooled sample. Pathogens are stronger candidates when they remain stable in wastewater and are consistently shed in feces or urine. The sample can contain traces shed by people with symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. During the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater data complemented clinical surveillance by reflecting both symptomatic and asymptomatic infection and by providing information about circulating variants.
+
+Different laboratory methods answer different questions. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, or RT-PCR, offers highly sensitive, quick targeted detection and quantification of known variants. Next-generation genomic sequencing, or NGS, can indicate the relative abundance of viral mutations and provide a broader view of genetic diversity within a pooled sample. The comment's authors recommend using NGS periodically at sentinel sites and targeted RT-PCR more routinely. That is their proposed operating model, rather than a universal technical specification.
+
+## Standardizing measurements over time
+
+CDC receives data from about 1,500 wastewater surveillance sites each week and performs quality checks before publication. Its [methodology](https://www.cdc.gov/nwss/data-methods.html) defines a wastewater viral activity level, or WVAL, that standardizes site-level measurements for comparison over time and aggregation into state, territorial, regional, and national summaries.
+
+For each combination of laboratory method, site, and virus, CDC log-transforms measurements, removes provisional extreme values, establishes a low-level baseline, compares current values with that baseline, aggregates measurements by week, and assigns one of five activity categories. WVAL is posted publicly only after a site has at least eight weeks of data produced with the same laboratory method.
+
+The current method uses non-normalized concentration data as its input, while WVAL still standardizes each site's values against a baseline. CDC stopped applying an additional normalization step based on factors such as wastewater flow rate. CDC says this change was intended to make variation reflect the amount of virus in wastewater rather than normalization factors, simplify calculations, and reduce processing-error risk.
+
+On August 15, 2025, CDC revised WVAL, aligned site baselines for COVID-19, influenza A, and RSV to 24 months, and applied the changes to historical data for comparison over time. The agency describes wastewater surveillance as an evolving science and says that its methods and visualizations may change.
+
+## Aggregation and geographic representation
+
+A site-level WVAL trend describes measurements from the catchment sampled at that site. Higher-level summaries combine multiple site-level signals, but reporting sites need not be distributed evenly across a state or territory. CDC warns that geographically uneven site density can make a state or territorial median unrepresentative of some communities.
+
+A state or territorial category therefore summarizes its contributing surveillance network. CDC states that the median may not represent every community and advises looking at other evidence, including clinical data, for similar trends. Higher-level displays should be read with attention to which sites contribute data and whether each site has enough method-consistent observations for WVAL publication.
+
+## What makes it an early-warning system
+
+Wastewater can provide an early indicator alongside medically attended case data. The *Nature Medicine* comment cites studies in which trends in wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 were strongly predictive of clinical case counts. Its authors also caution that the lead time may diminish as an epidemic progresses.
+
+The authors argue that wider use of at-home diagnostic tests can make clinical testing data less reliable for public-health surveillance. They state that a wastewater warning of increased cases can give health departments additional lead time for decisions about resource allocation and preventive measures.
+
+Wastewater data work best as complementary surveillance. They can show changes in wastewater concentration or activity within a catchment, while public-health interpretation may also draw on clinical cases, hospital capacity, symptom surveys, testing data, or other indicators. The sources describe continuing uncertainty about how these streams should be integrated into a holistic measure of local risk.
+
+## Technical and institutional limits
+
+Wastewater contains material from a vast quantity of human and animal microbes, which makes measurements inherently noisy. The *Nature Medicine* authors report a lack of consensus about monitoring techniques and whether or how measurements should be standardized. Even a proposed human fecal marker such as pepper mild mottle virus presents interpretation problems because it is common but diet-dependent.
+
+Variant monitoring adds another dependency. Clinical sequences are often needed to identify a novel variant and develop primers for targeted wastewater assays. Wastewater sequencing can broaden surveillance, but the authors warn that it remains vulnerable to changes in the capacity to produce timely sequence information about clinical strains.
+
+Delays in reporting and incomplete metadata can reduce wastewater surveillance's early-warning value. The authors identify missing details such as primer sequences, sample type, and source population as obstacles to detecting outbreaks and low-frequency variants. CDC updates its displayed data each Friday and labels them preliminary because values may change as more reports arrive.
+
+Long-term programs need funding for sampling equipment, laboratory supplies and personnel, technical expertise for developing assays and risk metrics, and communication that makes results intelligible to nontechnical audiences. They also require cooperation among wastewater utilities, laboratories, public-health agencies, researchers, and commercial partners whose priorities and operating practices may differ.
+
+Community acceptance is another operating requirement. The *Nature Medicine* authors warn that groups with histories of health-related exploitation or mistreatment may reasonably be concerned about what wastewater sequences contain and how findings will be used. They argue that top-down implementation can provoke resistance and that building trust may require co-design with community members. They cite work with some tribal nations in Arizona as an example in which the monitoring approach and reporting were modified around community needs.
+
+One institutional design inference from the CDC methodology and the *Nature Medicine* comment is that wastewater surveillance extends from the sampling point through the laboratory, data pipeline, geographic summary, public explanation, and decision process. On that reading, programs may make alerts easier to interpret and act on by attaching them to a defined catchment and documented sampling, laboratory, and baseline context, then documenting corroboration requirements and response procedures in advance. Those procedures concern interpretation and action; they do not convert wastewater concentration into a direct estimate of population prevalence.
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