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1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556575859606162636465666768697071// Third-party survey estimates of a country's Bluesky population, hand-entered and keyed by// country code. These do NOT come from our own collector/estimate pipeline: they are external// surveys that self-report usage and project it onto a whole population, a different kind of// number from our attributed floor and our language-weighted model. We show one alongside the// national estimate as a "reach" figure, always with a visible method + date + source so a reader// can check how it was produced instead of trusting a bare number.//// Surveys differ in what they measure (weekly use, regular use) and how they sample (opt-in web// panel vs random dual-frame), so each entry carries its own `measure`, `method` and `caveat`// rather than a shared template. Not automated on purpose: each entry is a specific published study// we vouch for by hand. Add a country only when a real, citable survey exists.export interface ExternalReach { /** Platform the survey actually measured (usually Bluesky, not AT Protocol as a whole). */ platform: string; /** Who to credit in the sentence ("<org> put ... use in <country> at ..."). */ org: string; /** Estimated users (people). Where a study reports only a %, this is % x population, rounded. */ users: number; /** Share of the reference population the figure represents, in percent. */ sharePct: number; /** The population the share is of, phrased for the sentence: "adults", "people 14 and over". */ populationLabel: string; /** Usage-frequency framing the survey used: "weekly", "regular". */ measure: string; /** One clause describing the sample + projection, for the note. Numbers dot-formatted to match. */ method: string; /** One sentence naming the survey's main limitation (and which way it biases the number). */ caveat: string; /** ISO date the figure was published (YYYY-MM-DD). */ date: string; /** Visible citation used as the source link text. */ source: string; /** Public source URL. */ url: string;}
export const EXTERNAL_REACH: Record<string, ExternalReach> = { no: { platform: 'Bluesky', org: 'Kantar Media', users: 310_000, sharePct: 7, populationLabel: 'adults', measure: 'weekly', method: 'a survey of 1.253 people on its GallupPanelet web panel, with self-reported use projected to the population', caveat: 'An opt-in web panel weighted to the population still leans toward more online people, so it probably runs a little high.', date: '2024-12-28', source: 'NRK Beta, 28 December 2024', url: 'https://nrkbeta.no/2024/12/28/hundretusener-av-nordmenn-bruker-bluesky-nesten-halvparten-sa-stort-som-x/', }, de: { platform: 'Bluesky', org: 'ARD and ZDF', users: 2_800_000, sharePct: 4, populationLabel: 'people 14 and over', measure: 'regular', method: 'a representative sample of 2.512 people (70% by phone, 30% online), projected to the 70,5 million German speakers aged 14 and over', caveat: 'A random-sample study, so less prone to the online skew of opt-in panels, but "regular use" is self-reported and still far broader than accounts we can place.', date: '2025-09-01', source: 'ARD/ZDF-Medienstudie 2025', url: 'https://www.media-perspektiven.de/fileadmin/user_upload/media-perspektiven/pdf/2025/MP_31_2025_ARD_ZDF-Medienstudie_Social_Media_zwischen_Wachstum_und_Saettigung_Nutzungsmuster_und_Plattformdynamiken_in_Deutschland.pdf', },};
export const externalReachFor = (cc: string): ExternalReach | undefined => EXTERNAL_REACH[cc];